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Seasonal Analysis of ZGNX (Zogenix)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 11/23/2010 to 8/10/2020 for ZGNX (Zogenix), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy ZGNX is October
Historically, the best month to sell ZGNX is September

In January, ZGNX is historically up by 0.89%
In February, ZGNX is historically up by 2.74%
In March, ZGNX is historically down by -5.27%
In April, ZGNX is historically down by -6.40%
In May, ZGNX is historically down by -7.25%
In June, ZGNX is historically up by 1.96%
In July, ZGNX is historically up by 8.12%
In August, ZGNX is historically up by 0.13%
In September, ZGNX is historically up by 8.30%
In October, ZGNX is historically down by -9.80%
In November, ZGNX is historically up by 4.42%
In December, ZGNX is historically up by 2.15%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of ZGNX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points508
Start Date of Data11/23/2010
End Date of Data8/10/2020
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close8.02
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close61.35
Average Value of Adjusted Close24.25
Median Value of Adjusted Close18.92
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close13.92
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 57.39%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of ZGNX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 24.25 (the mean) and 18.92 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of ZGNX goes above 38.17 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 10.33 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of ZGNX goes above 52.09 (mean + 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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