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Seasonal Analysis of XIN (Xinyuan Real Estate Co.)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 12/12/2007 to 8/3/2020 for XIN (Xinyuan Real Estate Co.), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy XIN is December
Historically, the best month to sell XIN is November

In January, XIN is historically down by -4.05%
In February, XIN is historically up by 0.64%
In March, XIN is historically up by 1.42%
In April, XIN is historically up by 5.37%
In May, XIN is historically up by 5.11%
In June, XIN is historically down by -3.72%
In July, XIN is historically down by -1.38%
In August, XIN is historically down by -1.35%
In September, XIN is historically up by 0.80%
In October, XIN is historically up by 0.21%
In November, XIN is historically up by 7.72%
In December, XIN is historically down by -10.77%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of XIN
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points661
Start Date of Data12/12/2007
End Date of Data8/3/2020
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close0.98
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close8.46
Average Value of Adjusted Close2.89
Median Value of Adjusted Close2.71
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close1.26
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 43.51%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of XIN tends towards a value in the vicinity of 2.89 (the mean) and 2.71 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of XIN goes above 4.14 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 1.63 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of XIN goes above 5.40 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 0.37 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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