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Seasonal Analysis of XBCVX (Bancroft Fund Ltd)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 1/21/2014 to 1/13/2020 for XBCVX (Bancroft Fund Ltd), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy XBCVX is January
Historically, the best month to sell XBCVX is August

In January, XBCVX is historically down by -5.55%
In February, XBCVX is historically down by -3.83%
In March, XBCVX is historically down by -3.24%
In April, XBCVX is historically down by -1.71%
In May, XBCVX is historically down by -1.44%
In June, XBCVX is historically up by 1.27%
In July, XBCVX is historically up by 2.46%
In August, XBCVX is historically up by 3.26%
In September, XBCVX is historically up by 2.60%
In October, XBCVX is historically up by 1.48%
In November, XBCVX is historically up by 1.86%
In December, XBCVX is historically up by 2.85%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of XBCVX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points313
Start Date of Data1/21/2014
End Date of Data1/13/2020
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close16.61
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close27.34
Average Value of Adjusted Close20.93
Median Value of Adjusted Close20.25
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close2.39
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 11.40%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of XBCVX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 20.93 (the mean) and 20.25 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of XBCVX goes above 23.32 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 18.54 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of XBCVX goes above 25.71 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 16.16 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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