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Seasonal Analysis of WUBA (58.com Inc)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 10/30/2013 to 8/3/2020 for WUBA (58.com Inc), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy WUBA is October
Historically, the best month to sell WUBA is April

In January, WUBA is historically down by -5.18%
In February, WUBA is historically down by -2.05%
In March, WUBA is historically down by -2.64%
In April, WUBA is historically up by 11.39%
In May, WUBA is historically up by 0.36%
In June, WUBA is historically up by 3.34%
In July, WUBA is historically up by 9.21%
In August, WUBA is historically down by -4.02%
In September, WUBA is historically down by -0.13%
In October, WUBA is historically down by -11.13%
In November, WUBA is historically up by 0.22%
In December, WUBA is historically up by 0.64%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of WUBA
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points354
Start Date of Data10/30/2013
End Date of Data8/3/2020
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close17.00
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close87.84
Average Value of Adjusted Close54.25
Median Value of Adjusted Close52.96
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close13.87
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 25.56%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of WUBA tends towards a value in the vicinity of 54.25 (the mean) and 52.96 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of WUBA goes above 68.12 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 40.39 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of WUBA goes above 81.99 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 26.52 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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