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Seasonal Analysis of VTHRX (VANGUARD TARGET RETIREMENT 2030 FUND INVESTOR SHARES)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 6/7/2006 to 2/20/2018 for VTHRX (VANGUARD TARGET RETIREMENT 2030 FUND INVESTOR SHARES), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy VTHRX is February
Historically, the best month to sell VTHRX is December

In January, VTHRX is historically down by -3.40%
In February, VTHRX is historically down by -4.82%
In March, VTHRX is historically down by -2.32%
In April, VTHRX is historically down by -0.65%
In May, VTHRX is historically down by -0.82%
In June, VTHRX is historically down by -0.07%
In July, VTHRX is historically down by -0.02%
In August, VTHRX is historically up by 0.07%
In September, VTHRX is historically up by 1.38%
In October, VTHRX is historically up by 2.71%
In November, VTHRX is historically up by 2.93%
In December, VTHRX is historically up by 5.01%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of VTHRX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points612
Start Date of Data6/7/2006
End Date of Data2/20/2018
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close10.28
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close35.29
Average Value of Adjusted Close21.98
Median Value of Adjusted Close20.00
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close5.71
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 25.96%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of VTHRX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 21.98 (the mean) and 20.00 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of VTHRX goes above 27.68 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 16.27 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of VTHRX goes above 33.39 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 10.57 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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