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Seasonal Analysis of VHCOX (VANGUARD CAPITAL OPPORTUNITY FUND INVESTOR SHARES)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 1/3/2000 to 6/18/2018 for VHCOX (VANGUARD CAPITAL OPPORTUNITY FUND INVESTOR SHARES), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy VHCOX is January
Historically, the best month to sell VHCOX is December

In January, VHCOX is historically down by -6.49%
In February, VHCOX is historically down by -3.42%
In March, VHCOX is historically down by -1.71%
In April, VHCOX is historically down by -1.27%
In May, VHCOX is historically down by -2.44%
In June, VHCOX is historically down by -0.90%
In July, VHCOX is historically up by 0.66%
In August, VHCOX is historically down by -0.37%
In September, VHCOX is historically up by 2.31%
In October, VHCOX is historically up by 0.95%
In November, VHCOX is historically up by 5.35%
In December, VHCOX is historically up by 7.33%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of VHCOX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points964
Start Date of Data1/3/2000
End Date of Data6/18/2018
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close8.11
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close72.86
Average Value of Adjusted Close26.96
Median Value of Adjusted Close21.80
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close15.37
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 57.03%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of VHCOX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 26.96 (the mean) and 21.80 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of VHCOX goes above 42.33 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 11.58 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of VHCOX goes above 57.70 (mean + 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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