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Seasonal Analysis of TEDPX (TIAA-CREF EMERGING MARKETS DEBT FUND PREMIER CLASS)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 9/26/2014 to 1/13/2020 for TEDPX (TIAA-CREF EMERGING MARKETS DEBT FUND PREMIER CLASS), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy TEDPX is February
Historically, the best month to sell TEDPX is September

In January, TEDPX is historically down by -3.12%
In February, TEDPX is historically down by -4.16%
In March, TEDPX is historically down by -2.99%
In April, TEDPX is historically down by -0.65%
In May, TEDPX is historically down by -0.68%
In June, TEDPX is historically down by -0.03%
In July, TEDPX is historically up by 0.51%
In August, TEDPX is historically up by 2.19%
In September, TEDPX is historically up by 2.33%
In October, TEDPX is historically up by 2.21%
In November, TEDPX is historically up by 2.06%
In December, TEDPX is historically up by 2.33%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of TEDPX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points278
Start Date of Data9/26/2014
End Date of Data1/13/2020
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close7.14
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close10.20
Average Value of Adjusted Close8.67
Median Value of Adjusted Close8.85
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close0.88
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 10.11%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of TEDPX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 8.67 (the mean) and 8.85 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of TEDPX goes above 9.54 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 7.79 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of TEDPX goes above 10.42 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 6.91 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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