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Seasonal Analysis of NAVI (Navient Corp)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 4/17/2014 to 11/6/2017 for NAVI (Navient Corp), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy NAVI is August
Historically, the best month to sell NAVI is December

In January, NAVI is historically up by 2.47%
In February, NAVI is historically down by -1.97%
In March, NAVI is historically down by -6.12%
In April, NAVI is historically up by 0.28%
In May, NAVI is historically up by 0.54%
In June, NAVI is historically up by 3.29%
In July, NAVI is historically down by -0.10%
In August, NAVI is historically down by -10.18%
In September, NAVI is historically down by -5.60%
In October, NAVI is historically down by -3.27%
In November, NAVI is historically up by 7.58%
In December, NAVI is historically up by 13.08%

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See Also: Fourier Analysis of NAVI
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points187
Start Date of Data4/17/2014
End Date of Data11/6/2017
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close8.31
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close19.79
Average Value of Adjusted Close14.34
Median Value of Adjusted Close14.51
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close2.57
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 17.90%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of NAVI tends towards a value in the vicinity of 14.34 (the mean) and 14.51 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of NAVI goes above 16.91 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 11.77 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of NAVI goes above 19.48 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 9.21 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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