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Seasonal Analysis of MFLLX (SMALL COMPANY GROWTH PORTFOLIO CLASS IS)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 9/16/2013 to 10/14/2019 for MFLLX (SMALL COMPANY GROWTH PORTFOLIO CLASS IS), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy MFLLX is January
Historically, the best month to sell MFLLX is July

In January, MFLLX is historically down by -6.28%
In February, MFLLX is historically down by -2.99%
In March, MFLLX is historically down by -0.15%
In April, MFLLX is historically down by -2.44%
In May, MFLLX is historically up by 1.23%
In June, MFLLX is historically up by 4.21%
In July, MFLLX is historically up by 5.96%
In August, MFLLX is historically up by 5.67%
In September, MFLLX is historically up by 0.36%
In October, MFLLX is historically down by -1.89%
In November, MFLLX is historically down by -1.61%
In December, MFLLX is historically down by -2.07%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of MFLLX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points318
Start Date of Data9/16/2013
End Date of Data10/14/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close8.49
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close14.56
Average Value of Adjusted Close11.40
Median Value of Adjusted Close11.30
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close1.07
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 9.38%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of MFLLX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 11.40 (the mean) and 11.30 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of MFLLX goes above 12.47 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 10.33 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of MFLLX goes above 13.54 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 9.26 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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