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Seasonal Analysis of MELAX (EMERGING MARKETS LEADERS PORTFOLIO CLASS A)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 1/5/2015 to 2/24/2020 for MELAX (EMERGING MARKETS LEADERS PORTFOLIO CLASS A), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy MELAX is January
Historically, the best month to sell MELAX is October

In January, MELAX is historically down by -4.65%
In February, MELAX is historically down by -4.06%
In March, MELAX is historically down by -0.57%
In April, MELAX is historically up by 1.36%
In May, MELAX is historically up by 0.98%
In June, MELAX is historically up by 1.29%
In July, MELAX is historically up by 2.21%
In August, MELAX is historically up by 1.82%
In September, MELAX is historically up by 0.64%
In October, MELAX is historically up by 3.53%
In November, MELAX is historically down by -1.09%
In December, MELAX is historically down by -1.45%

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See Also: Fourier Analysis of MELAX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points269
Start Date of Data1/5/2015
End Date of Data2/24/2020
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close8.18
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close13.31
Average Value of Adjusted Close10.43
Median Value of Adjusted Close10.30
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close1.05
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 10.02%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of MELAX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 10.43 (the mean) and 10.30 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of MELAX goes above 11.48 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 9.39 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of MELAX goes above 12.52 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 8.34 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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