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Seasonal Analysis of JETSX (John Hancock Var Ins Tr Total Stock Mark)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 2/1/2017 to 5/14/2018 for JETSX (John Hancock Var Ins Tr Total Stock Mark), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy JETSX is April
Historically, the best month to sell JETSX is December

In January, JETSX is historically up by 0.56%
In February, JETSX is historically down by -2.83%
In March, JETSX is historically down by -2.64%
In April, JETSX is historically down by -3.85%
In May, JETSX is historically down by -1.27%
In June, JETSX is historically down by -1.10%
In July, JETSX is historically up by 0.20%
In August, JETSX is historically down by -1.68%
In September, JETSX is historically down by -0.56%
In October, JETSX is historically up by 2.54%
In November, JETSX is historically up by 3.92%
In December, JETSX is historically up by 6.71%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of JETSX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points68
Start Date of Data2/1/2017
End Date of Data5/14/2018
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close19.55
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close24.00
Average Value of Adjusted Close21.39
Median Value of Adjusted Close21.09
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close1.14
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 5.30%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of JETSX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 21.39 (the mean) and 21.09 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of JETSX goes above 22.52 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 20.25 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of JETSX goes above 23.66 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 19.12 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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