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Seasonal Analysis of IYBFX (IVY BALANCED FUND CLASS R)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 12/20/2012 to 8/19/2019 for IYBFX (IVY BALANCED FUND CLASS R), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy IYBFX is January
Historically, the best month to sell IYBFX is December

In January, IYBFX is historically down by -4.95%
In February, IYBFX is historically down by -2.71%
In March, IYBFX is historically down by -2.00%
In April, IYBFX is historically down by -1.97%
In May, IYBFX is historically down by -0.63%
In June, IYBFX is historically up by 0.61%
In July, IYBFX is historically up by 1.91%
In August, IYBFX is historically up by 1.02%
In September, IYBFX is historically up by 2.89%
In October, IYBFX is historically up by 1.07%
In November, IYBFX is historically up by 1.78%
In December, IYBFX is historically up by 2.99%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of IYBFX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points349
Start Date of Data12/20/2012
End Date of Data8/19/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close15.31
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close24.70
Average Value of Adjusted Close20.34
Median Value of Adjusted Close20.20
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close2.04
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 10.03%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of IYBFX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 20.34 (the mean) and 20.20 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of IYBFX goes above 22.38 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 18.30 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of IYBFX goes above 24.42 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 16.26 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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