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Seasonal Analysis of HPT (Hospitality Properties Trust)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 8/17/1995 to 5/13/2019 for HPT (Hospitality Properties Trust), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy HPT is February
Historically, the best month to sell HPT is November

In January, HPT is historically down by -2.96%
In February, HPT is historically down by -3.81%
In March, HPT is historically down by -2.97%
In April, HPT is historically down by -0.93%
In May, HPT is historically up by 1.79%
In June, HPT is historically up by 0.01%
In July, HPT is historically up by 1.21%
In August, HPT is historically up by 0.60%
In September, HPT is historically up by 1.54%
In October, HPT is historically up by 0.60%
In November, HPT is historically up by 3.01%
In December, HPT is historically up by 1.91%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of HPT
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points1240
Start Date of Data8/17/1995
End Date of Data5/13/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close3.27
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close27.40
Average Value of Adjusted Close12.87
Median Value of Adjusted Close12.73
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close7.04
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 54.74%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of HPT tends towards a value in the vicinity of 12.87 (the mean) and 12.73 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of HPT goes above 19.91 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 5.82 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of HPT goes above 26.95 (mean + 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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