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Seasonal Analysis of FSIVX (FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL INDEX FUND PREMIUM CLASS)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 9/1/2004 to 11/6/2017 for FSIVX (FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL INDEX FUND PREMIUM CLASS), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy FSIVX is January
Historically, the best month to sell FSIVX is October

In January, FSIVX is historically down by -5.57%
In February, FSIVX is historically down by -3.66%
In March, FSIVX is historically down by -2.83%
In April, FSIVX is historically down by -0.83%
In May, FSIVX is historically down by -0.29%
In June, FSIVX is historically down by -0.25%
In July, FSIVX is historically up by 0.30%
In August, FSIVX is historically down by -0.23%
In September, FSIVX is historically up by 2.45%
In October, FSIVX is historically up by 3.81%
In November, FSIVX is historically up by 3.31%
In December, FSIVX is historically up by 3.79%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of FSIVX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points689
Start Date of Data9/1/2004
End Date of Data11/6/2017
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close15.89
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close43.37
Average Value of Adjusted Close31.17
Median Value of Adjusted Close31.57
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close5.64
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 18.10%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of FSIVX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 31.17 (the mean) and 31.57 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of FSIVX goes above 36.82 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 25.53 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of FSIVX goes above 42.46 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 19.88 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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