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Seasonal Analysis of FMDRX (FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL DISCOVERY FUND CLASS R6)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 4/7/2014 to 8/5/2019 for FMDRX (FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL DISCOVERY FUND CLASS R6), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy FMDRX is January
Historically, the best month to sell FMDRX is July

In January, FMDRX is historically down by -5.06%
In February, FMDRX is historically down by -1.53%
In March, FMDRX is historically down by -0.82%
In April, FMDRX is historically up by 2.14%
In May, FMDRX is historically up by 0.82%
In June, FMDRX is historically up by 1.60%
In July, FMDRX is historically up by 3.58%
In August, FMDRX is historically down by -0.69%
In September, FMDRX is historically up by 0.01%
In October, FMDRX is historically up by 0.82%
In November, FMDRX is historically down by -0.37%
In December, FMDRX is historically down by -0.50%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of FMDRX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points279
Start Date of Data4/7/2014
End Date of Data8/5/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close21.69
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close31.81
Average Value of Adjusted Close27.25
Median Value of Adjusted Close26.67
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close2.54
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 9.32%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of FMDRX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 27.25 (the mean) and 26.67 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of FMDRX goes above 29.79 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 24.70 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of FMDRX goes above 32.33 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 22.16 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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