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Seasonal Analysis of FLREX (FRANKLIN LIFESMART 2040 RETIREMENT TARGET FUND CLASS R6)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 5/27/2014 to 12/2/2019 for FLREX (FRANKLIN LIFESMART 2040 RETIREMENT TARGET FUND CLASS R6), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy FLREX is January
Historically, the best month to sell FLREX is December

In January, FLREX is historically down by -6.04%
In February, FLREX is historically down by -3.75%
In March, FLREX is historically down by -1.82%
In April, FLREX is historically down by -0.32%
In May, FLREX is historically down by -0.21%
In June, FLREX is historically down by -0.37%
In July, FLREX is historically up by 1.29%
In August, FLREX is historically up by 0.78%
In September, FLREX is historically up by 2.72%
In October, FLREX is historically up by 1.52%
In November, FLREX is historically up by 2.23%
In December, FLREX is historically up by 3.96%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of FLREX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points289
Start Date of Data5/27/2014
End Date of Data12/2/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close8.99
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close13.57
Average Value of Adjusted Close11.26
Median Value of Adjusted Close10.91
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close1.19
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 10.58%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of FLREX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 11.26 (the mean) and 10.91 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of FLREX goes above 12.45 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 10.06 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of FLREX goes above 13.64 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 8.87 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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