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Seasonal Analysis of FITVX (FIRST INVESTORS TOTAL RETURN FUND INSTITUTIONAL CLASS)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 4/3/2013 to 8/5/2019 for FITVX (FIRST INVESTORS TOTAL RETURN FUND INSTITUTIONAL CLASS), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy FITVX is January
Historically, the best month to sell FITVX is December

In January, FITVX is historically down by -5.25%
In February, FITVX is historically down by -3.36%
In March, FITVX is historically down by -1.65%
In April, FITVX is historically down by -0.66%
In May, FITVX is historically down by -0.62%
In June, FITVX is historically up by 0.09%
In July, FITVX is historically up by 0.24%
In August, FITVX is historically up by 0.74%
In September, FITVX is historically up by 0.91%
In October, FITVX is historically up by 1.83%
In November, FITVX is historically up by 2.87%
In December, FITVX is historically up by 4.87%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of FITVX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points332
Start Date of Data4/3/2013
End Date of Data8/5/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close12.80
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close19.32
Average Value of Adjusted Close16.06
Median Value of Adjusted Close15.87
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close1.54
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 9.56%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of FITVX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 16.06 (the mean) and 15.87 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of FITVX goes above 17.59 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 14.52 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of FITVX goes above 19.13 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 12.98 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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