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Seasonal Analysis of FCBC (First Community Bankshares)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 4/8/1994 to 3/18/2019 for FCBC (First Community Bankshares), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy FCBC is May
Historically, the best month to sell FCBC is December

In January, FCBC is historically down by -4.13%
In February, FCBC is historically down by -1.61%
In March, FCBC is historically down by -3.76%
In April, FCBC is historically down by -4.27%
In May, FCBC is historically down by -6.04%
In June, FCBC is historically down by -0.25%
In July, FCBC is historically up by 2.81%
In August, FCBC is historically down by -0.05%
In September, FCBC is historically up by 0.13%
In October, FCBC is historically up by 5.37%
In November, FCBC is historically up by 5.06%
In December, FCBC is historically up by 6.75%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of FCBC
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points1285
Start Date of Data4/8/1994
End Date of Data3/18/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close5.71
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close36.13
Average Value of Adjusted Close15.49
Median Value of Adjusted Close13.87
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close7.12
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 45.97%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of FCBC tends towards a value in the vicinity of 15.49 (the mean) and 13.87 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of FCBC goes above 22.62 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 8.37 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of FCBC goes above 29.74 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 1.25 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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