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Seasonal Analysis of DURAX (DEUTSCHE EUROPEAN EQUITY FUND CLASS A)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 11/11/2014 to 1/13/2020 for DURAX (DEUTSCHE EUROPEAN EQUITY FUND CLASS A), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy DURAX is January
Historically, the best month to sell DURAX is July

In January, DURAX is historically down by -4.70%
In February, DURAX is historically down by -4.41%
In March, DURAX is historically down by -1.39%
In April, DURAX is historically up by 1.56%
In May, DURAX is historically up by 1.54%
In June, DURAX is historically up by 0.81%
In July, DURAX is historically up by 2.99%
In August, DURAX is historically down by -0.09%
In September, DURAX is historically up by 1.45%
In October, DURAX is historically up by 0.16%
In November, DURAX is historically down by -0.13%
In December, DURAX is historically up by 2.21%

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See Also: Fourier Analysis of DURAX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points271
Start Date of Data11/11/2014
End Date of Data1/13/2020
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close8.42
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close12.81
Average Value of Adjusted Close10.55
Median Value of Adjusted Close10.50
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close1.04
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 9.87%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of DURAX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 10.55 (the mean) and 10.50 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of DURAX goes above 11.59 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 9.51 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of DURAX goes above 12.64 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 8.47 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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