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Seasonal Analysis of DDIV (First Trust Dorsey Wright Momentum & Dividend ETF)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 3/18/2014 to 10/14/2019 for DDIV (First Trust Dorsey Wright Momentum & Dividend ETF), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy DDIV is January
Historically, the best month to sell DDIV is July

In January, DDIV is historically down by -7.80%
In February, DDIV is historically down by -5.02%
In March, DDIV is historically down by -0.81%
In April, DDIV is historically up by 0.41%
In May, DDIV is historically up by 0.02%
In June, DDIV is historically up by 1.81%
In July, DDIV is historically up by 3.85%
In August, DDIV is historically up by 3.15%
In September, DDIV is historically up by 3.58%
In October, DDIV is historically down by -0.02%
In November, DDIV is historically down by -0.41%
In December, DDIV is historically up by 1.21%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of DDIV
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points292
Start Date of Data3/18/2014
End Date of Data10/14/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close17.69
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close26.00
Average Value of Adjusted Close21.88
Median Value of Adjusted Close21.75
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close1.94
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 8.88%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of DDIV tends towards a value in the vicinity of 21.88 (the mean) and 21.75 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of DDIV goes above 23.82 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 19.93 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of DDIV goes above 25.76 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 17.99 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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