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Seasonal Analysis of CMEGX (Columbia Moderate 529 E Aggr Track)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 10/29/2013 to 12/2/2019 for CMEGX (Columbia Moderate 529 E Aggr Track), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy CMEGX is January
Historically, the best month to sell CMEGX is December

In January, CMEGX is historically down by -5.65%
In February, CMEGX is historically down by -3.44%
In March, CMEGX is historically down by -2.12%
In April, CMEGX is historically down by -0.61%
In May, CMEGX is historically down by -0.31%
In June, CMEGX is historically up by 0.10%
In July, CMEGX is historically up by 1.47%
In August, CMEGX is historically up by 1.73%
In September, CMEGX is historically up by 1.85%
In October, CMEGX is historically up by 0.59%
In November, CMEGX is historically up by 2.68%
In December, CMEGX is historically up by 3.71%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of CMEGX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points319
Start Date of Data10/29/2013
End Date of Data12/2/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close20.26
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close30.29
Average Value of Adjusted Close25.06
Median Value of Adjusted Close24.42
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close2.65
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 10.58%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of CMEGX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 25.06 (the mean) and 24.42 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of CMEGX goes above 27.71 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 22.41 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of CMEGX goes above 30.36 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 19.76 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.


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