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Seasonal Analysis of ARSFX (ARISTOTLE INTERNATIONAL EQUITY FUND CLASS I)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 4/7/2014 to 10/14/2019 for ARSFX (ARISTOTLE INTERNATIONAL EQUITY FUND CLASS I), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy ARSFX is January
Historically, the best month to sell ARSFX is September

In January, ARSFX is historically down by -5.50%
In February, ARSFX is historically down by -4.84%
In March, ARSFX is historically down by -1.18%
In April, ARSFX is historically up by 1.96%
In May, ARSFX is historically up by 2.44%
In June, ARSFX is historically up by 2.20%
In July, ARSFX is historically up by 3.07%
In August, ARSFX is historically up by 2.45%
In September, ARSFX is historically up by 4.65%
In October, ARSFX is historically up by 1.97%
In November, ARSFX is historically down by -2.41%
In December, ARSFX is historically down by -4.80%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of ARSFX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points289
Start Date of Data4/7/2014
End Date of Data10/14/2019
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close7.70
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close11.27
Average Value of Adjusted Close9.67
Median Value of Adjusted Close9.54
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close0.89
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 9.24%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of ARSFX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 9.67 (the mean) and 9.54 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of ARSFX goes above 10.56 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 8.77 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of ARSFX goes above 11.45 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 7.88 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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