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Seasonal Analysis of ARLP (Alliance Resource Partners)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 1/3/2000 to 5/21/2018 for ARLP (Alliance Resource Partners), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy ARLP is January
Historically, the best month to sell ARLP is November

In January, ARLP is historically down by -11.29%
In February, ARLP is historically down by -10.05%
In March, ARLP is historically down by -9.53%
In April, ARLP is historically down by -5.37%
In May, ARLP is historically down by -1.40%
In June, ARLP is historically up by 0.26%
In July, ARLP is historically up by 4.22%
In August, ARLP is historically up by 5.81%
In September, ARLP is historically up by 7.14%
In October, ARLP is historically up by 7.44%
In November, ARLP is historically up by 7.73%
In December, ARLP is historically up by 5.04%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of ARLP
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points960
Start Date of Data1/3/2000
End Date of Data5/21/2018
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close0.79
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close34.28
Average Value of Adjusted Close11.92
Median Value of Adjusted Close9.13
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close8.53
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 71.56%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of ARLP tends towards a value in the vicinity of 11.92 (the mean) and 9.13 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of ARLP goes above 20.44 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 3.39 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of ARLP goes above 28.97 (mean + 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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