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Seasonal Analysis of AMKAX (INVESCO MODERATE ALLOCATION FUND CLASS A)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 5/3/2004 to 2/12/2018 for AMKAX (INVESCO MODERATE ALLOCATION FUND CLASS A), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy AMKAX is February
Historically, the best month to sell AMKAX is December

In January, AMKAX is historically down by -3.37%
In February, AMKAX is historically down by -3.76%
In March, AMKAX is historically down by -1.93%
In April, AMKAX is historically down by -0.69%
In May, AMKAX is historically down by -0.33%
In June, AMKAX is historically up by 0.15%
In July, AMKAX is historically down by -0.11%
In August, AMKAX is historically up by 0.01%
In September, AMKAX is historically up by 1.31%
In October, AMKAX is historically up by 2.09%
In November, AMKAX is historically up by 2.41%
In December, AMKAX is historically up by 4.24%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of AMKAX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points720
Start Date of Data5/3/2004
End Date of Data2/12/2018
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close5.46
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close14.12
Average Value of Adjusted Close9.49
Median Value of Adjusted Close9.07
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close2.06
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 21.70%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of AMKAX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 9.49 (the mean) and 9.07 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of AMKAX goes above 11.54 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 7.43 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of AMKAX goes above 13.60 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 5.37 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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