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Seasonal Analysis of AHICX (AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME MUNICIPAL BOND FUND CLASS C)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 1/2/2002 to 11/6/2017 for AHICX (AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME MUNICIPAL BOND FUND CLASS C), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy AHICX is January
Historically, the best month to sell AHICX is September

In January, AHICX is historically down by -2.73%
In February, AHICX is historically down by -2.40%
In March, AHICX is historically down by -2.01%
In April, AHICX is historically down by -1.18%
In May, AHICX is historically up by 0.09%
In June, AHICX is historically up by 0.65%
In July, AHICX is historically up by 0.35%
In August, AHICX is historically up by 1.51%
In September, AHICX is historically up by 2.23%
In October, AHICX is historically up by 1.21%
In November, AHICX is historically up by 1.45%
In December, AHICX is historically up by 0.83%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of AHICX
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points828
Start Date of Data1/2/2002
End Date of Data11/6/2017
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close8.18
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close15.97
Average Value of Adjusted Close11.40
Median Value of Adjusted Close10.65
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close2.28
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 19.95%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of AHICX tends towards a value in the vicinity of 11.40 (the mean) and 10.65 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of AHICX goes above 13.68 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 9.13 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of AHICX goes above 15.95 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 6.85 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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