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Seasonal Analysis of XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 2/6/2006 to 4/12/2021 for XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy XBI is March
Historically, the best month to sell XBI is December

In January, XBI is historically down by -5.53%
In February, XBI is historically down by -2.98%
In March, XBI is historically down by -6.71%
In April, XBI is historically down by -3.11%
In May, XBI is historically down by -4.52%
In June, XBI is historically down by -1.30%
In July, XBI is historically up by 4.32%
In August, XBI is historically up by 3.10%
In September, XBI is historically up by 5.28%
In October, XBI is historically up by 2.08%
In November, XBI is historically up by 2.73%
In December, XBI is historically up by 6.63%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of XBI
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points793
Start Date of Data2/6/2006
End Date of Data4/12/2021
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close13.49
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close166.73
Average Value of Adjusted Close49.25
Median Value of Adjusted Close39.11
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close33.92
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 68.87%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of XBI tends towards a value in the vicinity of 49.25 (the mean) and 39.11 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of XBI goes above 83.17 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 15.33 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of XBI goes above 117.09 (mean + 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.


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