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Seasonal Analysis of XLRN (Acceleron Pharma Inc)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 9/19/2013 to 7/26/2021 for XLRN (Acceleron Pharma Inc), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy XLRN is May
Historically, the best month to sell XLRN is December

In January, XLRN is historically down by -7.01%
In February, XLRN is historically down by -5.80%
In March, XLRN is historically down by -3.56%
In April, XLRN is historically down by -3.32%
In May, XLRN is historically down by -8.06%
In June, XLRN is historically down by -5.12%
In July, XLRN is historically down by -2.97%
In August, XLRN is historically down by -4.25%
In September, XLRN is historically up by 9.84%
In October, XLRN is historically down by -3.94%
In November, XLRN is historically up by 13.89%
In December, XLRN is historically up by 20.30%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of XLRN
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points411
Start Date of Data9/19/2013
End Date of Data7/26/2021
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close18.50
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close138.03
Average Value of Adjusted Close50.93
Median Value of Adjusted Close39.10
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close31.18
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 61.20%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of XLRN tends towards a value in the vicinity of 50.93 (the mean) and 39.10 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of XLRN goes above 82.11 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 19.76 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of XLRN goes above 113.28 (mean + 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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