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Seasonal Analysis of XME (SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF)


Seasonal Analysis

Using data from 6/22/2006 to 7/26/2021 for XME (SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF), this program was able to calculate the following historical seasonal cycles for this stock:
Historically, the best month to buy XME is August
Historically, the best month to sell XME is May

In January, XME is historically up by 1.42%
In February, XME is historically up by 3.70%
In March, XME is historically up by 2.08%
In April, XME is historically up by 0.46%
In May, XME is historically up by 5.05%
In June, XME is historically up by 4.15%
In July, XME is historically up by 3.70%
In August, XME is historically down by -7.08%
In September, XME is historically down by -4.16%
In October, XME is historically down by -5.32%
In November, XME is historically down by -5.93%
In December, XME is historically up by 1.93%

Right click on the graph above to see the menu of operations (download, full screen, etc.)

See Also: Fourier Analysis of XME
 
 
General Statistics
Number of Data Points789
Start Date of Data6/22/2006
End Date of Data7/26/2021
Minimum Value of Adjusted Close11.20
Maximum Value of Adjusted Close77.57
Average Value of Adjusted Close35.63
Median Value of Adjusted Close34.35
Standard Deviation of Adjusted Close12.16
Coefficient of Variation for Adjusted Close 34.12%
  Notes: "Adjusted Close" means closing price was adjusted for splits and dividends; Weekly (not daily) Adjusted close price was used for calculations; 
The average ("mean") and median are measures of central tendency.

For the given time period, the price of XME tends towards a value in the vicinity of 35.63 (the mean) and 34.35 (the median).

Standard Deviation and Coefficient Of Variation are measures of dispersion. These can be used to measure the volatility (risk) of a security, and also to estimate the expected ranges of the price.

Assuming a normal distribution, we expect to see 68% of values within one Standard Deviation of the mean (average), 95% of the values within two standard deviations of the mean, and 99% of the values within three standard deviations of the mean.

If the price of XME goes above 47.79 (mean + 1 standard deviation) or below 23.47 (mean - 1 standard deviation), then the reader is urged to investigate further for a possible buying or selling opportunity.

If the price of XME goes above 59.94 (mean + 2 standard deviations) or below 11.32 (mean - 2 standard deviations), then the reader is urged to investigate further as this would be an unusual event.



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